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The levies are also likely to reduce America’s economic output, as has happened before. A 2020 study, based on data from 151 countries, including the US, between 1963-2014, found that tariffs have “persistent adverse effects on the size of the pie,” or the gross domestic product of the country imposing them.
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There are a number of possible explanations for this.
One is that, when tariffs are low or non-existent, the country in question can focus on the kind of economic activities where it has an edge and export those goods and services, Gimber told CNN.
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“If you raise tariffs, you’re not going to see that same level of specialization,” he said, noting that the result would be lower labor productivity. “The labor could be better used elsewhere in the economy, in areas where you have a greater competitive advantage.”
Another reason output falls when tariffs are raised lies in the higher cost of imported inputs, wrote the authors of the 2020 study, most of them International Monetary Fund economists.
Fatas at INSEAD suggested the same reason, providing an example: “So I’m a worker and work in a factory. To produce what we produce we need to import microchips from Taiwan. Those things are more expensive. Together, me and the company, we create less value per hour worked.”
Yet another way tariff hikes can hurt the economy is by disrupting the status quo and fueling uncertainty over the future levels of import taxes. That lack of clarity is particularly acute this year, given the erratic nature of Trump’s trade policy.
Surveys by the National Federation of Independent Business in the US suggest the uncertainty is already weighing on American companies’ willingness to invest. The share of small businesses planning a capital outlay within the next six months hit its lowest level in April since at least April 2020, when Covid was sweeping the globe.
“The economy will continue to stumble along until the major sources of uncertainty (including over tariffs) are resolved. It’s hard to steer a ship in the fog,” the federation said.
Whichever forces may be at work, the IMF, to cite just one example, thinks higher US tariffs will lower the country’s productivity and output.
The ‘Magic Solar Belt’
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Whilst Egypt’s summer heat increases its electricity demand, it could also offer a solution. The south of Egypt, where Scatec’s new project is breaking ground is “in the magic solar belt,” said Elgendy. According to the Global Solar Atlas, Egypt has the fourth-highest solar PV (photovoltaic) potential of any country.
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Historically, solar energy has been hampered by its intermittency — solar panels only work during the day and large-scale battery storage has been too expensive. However, falling battery prices, combined with the lower operational and installation costs of solar power means that projects that combine solar generation with battery storage, like Obelisk, could overcome this problem.
Because of its size and prime location, Obelisk, Elgendy said, “can demonstrate value for the rest of the region, for the rest of the world, that ‘solar plus batteries’ can take away this primary weakness.”
The cost of battery storage projects has dropped by 89% between 2010 and 2023, driven by growing production capacity, especially in China. This drop, Elgendy said, means that by 2027 solar plus battery plants will be “the cheapest form of (any kind of electricity) generation.” A report by the Global Solar Council said that the availability of energy storage is a “major driver for increased solar installations globally.” However, whilst global battery storage capacity hit 363 gigawatt hours (GWh) in 2024, Africa only has 1.6 GWh.
Whilst battery prices have dropped and solar is cheap to operate, these plants still need large investments to build, and the money can be hard to find, Elgendy said, adding that the “risk premium” of investing in the developing world means that these projects are more expensive to build in Africa. The continent attracted only 3% of global energy investments in 2024.
Obelisk will receive $479.1 million in funding from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the African Development Bank, and British International Investment. The first 561 MW of solar power and the full battery capacity are due to be online in the first half of 2026, and reach the full 1.1 gigawatt capacity by the end of the year.
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